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Jyrki21
Rebel Sell + Moneyball = Life
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 1594
Location: Ottawa, ON
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 Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 9:13 am Post subject: Measuring Defense - G&M article |
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Here's a good article in the Moneypuck variety, picking up (without acknowledgement) on what appears to be some of Mirtle's research.
Here are GAAs for non-goalies at even strength and shorthanded. He only shows the stats for the six Canadian teams, but the results are nevertheless interesting:
http://www.globesports.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080211.wsptryder11/GSStory/GlobeSportsHockey/home
| Alan Ryder wrote: |
How does one measure defensive performance?
Some might feel that the plus/minus statistic is the answer (Aucoin was -22 last season with the then-bumbling Blackhawks). But the main problem with plus/minus is all those pluses. They have nothing to do with defence. Another shortcoming of the plus/minus stat is the omission of short-handed minuses.
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| Alan Ryder wrote: |
| With these minuses in one hand and time-on-ice data in the other hand, one can calculate goals-against averages for individual players. The math is the same as for goaltenders — GAA = 60 x Goals Against (minuses) / Time on Ice. |
Some conclusions:
CGY:
"Adrian Aucoin is earning his large paycheque after all, averaging about one goal less per even-handed game than Dion Phaneuf who has just inked a $39-million contract extension"
EDM:
"Sheldon Souray seems to have moved his defensive game from liability to asset."
MTL:
"Andrei Markov's paycheque is nearly twice the combined cost of Francis Bouillon and Patrice Brisebois. While he also gets paid for his offense, Markov has an unimpressive 2.64 EHGAA."
OTT:
"in the final year of his $6.5-million per season contract, Wade Redden continues to struggle with his game."
TOR:
"Andy Wozniewski has no business being on the penalty kill."
VAN:
"Salo has a very, very impressive EHGAA (in front of possibly the best goaltender on the planet) and a plus/minus of +6. Defenceman Alexander Edler has a plus/minus of +14 with an inferior EHGAA. The difference is all those pluses."
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saskhab
'03-'04 Goalie Profiles Coming Soon!
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2963
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 10:00 am Post subject: |
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If it doesn't factor in strength of opposition, I don't want to hear about it. Which is why Frankie Bouillon & Breezby have good numbers relative to Andrei Markov. It's easy to do that if you play against Chad Kilger all the time rather than Mats Sundin.
GAA is a lazy stat for goalies, and a lazy stat for defenseman as well.
BTW, Mirtle does work for the Globe & Mail, so I'm sure he was asked or it's come up in discussion circles around the newspaper.
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"Oh my God. There she is. Lovely Sally Slater. I should speak to her. But what the hell can I say? Anything that doesn't mention that I masturbate over her memory is probably a good idea."
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Bosc Ulrich II
OTP Resident Historian
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 2927
Location: Your own blue line!
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saskhab
'03-'04 Goalie Profiles Coming Soon!
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2963
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 10:03 am Post subject: |
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| Bosc Ulrich II wrote: |
Toronto's D on PK has awful stats  |
You have to also remember that they also have had Raycroft as a goalie for about 20 games this year as well.
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"Oh my God. There she is. Lovely Sally Slater. I should speak to her. But what the hell can I say? Anything that doesn't mention that I masturbate over her memory is probably a good idea."
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Bosc Ulrich II
OTP Resident Historian
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 2927
Location: Your own blue line!
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| Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 10:05 am Post subject: |
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| saskhab wrote: |
| Bosc Ulrich II wrote: |
| Toronto's D on PK has awful stats |
You have to also remember that they also have had Raycroft as a goalie for about 20 games this year as well. |
Chicken or the egg?
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Bosc Ulrich II
OTP Resident Historian
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 2927
Location: Your own blue line!
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| Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 10:10 am Post subject: |
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| saskhab wrote: |
| It's easy to do that if you play against Chad Kilger all the time rather than Mats Sundin. |
But he can shoot so hard and scored 17 goals one year!
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Bosc Ulrich II
OTP Resident Historian
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 2927
Location: Your own blue line!
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| Posted: Tue Feb 12, 2008 10:13 am Post subject: |
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| saskhab wrote: |
| If it doesn't factor in strength of opposition, I don't want to hear about it. |
Taking that one into account, then taking into account his GF, GA, and net, Lidstrom should be MVP hands down...
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