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saskhab
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2447
Location: Saskatoon!
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 Posted: Thu Feb 21, 2008 11:53 am Post subject: Playoff push |
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http://mirtle.blogspot.com/2008/01/playoff-push-95-points-or-bust.html
DH is on holidays, so I guess we aren't expecting him to put up his probability chart this year. This is Mirtle's simple playoff push chart, which uses adjusted point totals of 94 points for the Western playoff cutoff, and 92 points for the East. It shows the record a team has to go on for their remaining games to reach that level.
The Southeast throws a kink in the mix for the East, as the division champion right now is likely to be less than 92 points.
LA was recently eliminated on Feb. 18, as they could no longer possibly reach 94 points.
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Hounsy
Reigning King of One-Liners
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 829
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| Posted: Thu Feb 21, 2008 12:20 pm Post subject: |
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Leafs board upon reading this...
"So you're telling me there's a chance."
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Lang may yer lum reek! |
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US679 Part Deux
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 407
Location: Milton, Ontario
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| Posted: Thu Feb 21, 2008 2:11 pm Post subject: |
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| Hounsy wrote: |
Leafs board upon reading this...
"So you're telling me there's a chance."
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 Classic.
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saskhab
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2447
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Wed Mar 05, 2008 1:37 pm Post subject: |
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Tampa's loss to Pittsburgh last night means they can only reach 91 points. 91 points may still be good enough to win the SE, so they aren't technically out of it, but they are almost certainly unable to reach any of the other 7 seeds. By this method, they are essentially eliminated from the post-season.
Teams should be dropping out soon. Using this method, Edmonton and Columbus are within 2 losses of elimination in the West, as are Atlanta, Florida, and Toronto in the East (again, with the SE exception, Atlanta and Florida likely have a couple extra games to be fully eliminated beyond the 91 point cutoff).
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saskhab
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2447
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Thu Mar 06, 2008 1:16 pm Post subject: |
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Detroit's unexpected tail spin delayed the inevitable, but by the 94 points standard, they are the first team to clinch a playoff spot with their win last night vs. St. Louis. With the loss, St. Louis joins the "2 more losses" group above that I listed... on the verge of playoff elimination. To borrow environmental terms, they go from "endangered" to "critically endangered". It would take the equivelant of a miracle for any team in that group to make it at this point.
Atlanta's loss last night puts them in a virtually impossible situation: They must go at least 13-0-1 to reach the Eastern cutoff of 92 points... and while the Southeast cutoff might really be about 90 points, that's still pretty impossible.
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saskhab
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2447
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 1:25 pm Post subject: |
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The playoff race is thinning out considerably. After this weekend, it's hard to imagine anyone ranked 10th or lower in their conference grabbing a spot, and unfortunately that includes the little teams that could Chicago and Washington.
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Av-merican
Un-Tenured Professor of Hockey
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 1429
Location: Denver
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| Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 1:42 pm Post subject: |
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| saskhab wrote: |
| The playoff race is thinning out considerably. After this weekend, it's hard to imagine anyone ranked 10th or lower in their conference grabbing a spot, and unfortunately that includes the little teams that could Chicago and Washington. |
How bad does life suck right now for Niklas Backstrom? |
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saskhab
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2447
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 1:59 pm Post subject: |
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| Av-merican wrote: |
| saskhab wrote: |
| The playoff race is thinning out considerably. After this weekend, it's hard to imagine anyone ranked 10th or lower in their conference grabbing a spot, and unfortunately that includes the little teams that could Chicago and Washington. |
How bad does life suck right now for Niklas Backstrom? |
I'm missing the reference... I guess I didn't catch yesterday's game.
Really, to me, Brashear cost them the season on Saturday.
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saskhab
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2447
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Mon Mar 10, 2008 2:01 pm Post subject: |
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Ah shit, that sucks. Just read about it.
Both were huge mistakes of equal magnitude, IMO.
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saskhab
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2447
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Tue Mar 11, 2008 10:38 am Post subject: |
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Well, since no one else is that interested, I'll use the old "which division is tougher" argument based on these projected standings:
1. Pacific - 3 playoff teams, which are the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best teams in the Western Conference, which is also the tougher conference of the two. All 3 are legit contenders, although one of them is guaranteed to be out in the next round if the standings hold, as they'll be playing each other in the 4/5 round. Phoenix hung tough with the playoff challenger crowd all year until the last week or so. LA may have the worst record in the NHL, but part of that can be blamed on the unbalanced schedule making them face San Jose, Anaheim, and Dallas 8 times each.
2. Atlantic - The other oceanic division will likely send 4 teams to the dance for a second consecutive year, and at least 2 of the top 4 teams in the East will be among them in New Jersey and Pittsburgh. The Rangers could sneak into that group as well. Philly should be able to hold onto one of the bottom two seeds, although that's not 100% certain yet. The Islanders put up a valiant fight hanging around a playoff spot all year but they'll almost certainly come up short.
3. Northwest - There's no top dog, but the possibility of sending 4 teams to the dance proves a relative strength. However, one bad stretch against divisional opponents is all it will take for one of Calgary, Minnesota, Vancouver, and Colorado to drop out of the top 8 in the final 2 weeks of the season. It's really a toss up for 3rd at this point with...
4. Northeast - There's a bit more discrepency between haves and have nots in this division. Enigmatic Buffalo has to go on a really fantastic run at the end of the year to make it, but the division will send at least 3 teams to the playoffs and it's all but certain those 3 are Montreal, Ottawa, and Boston. The likely seeding for the NE teams is something like 2nd, 5th and 7th. Toronto may not be the worst bottom feeder out there, but neither is Edmonton. Ottawa's collapse really hurt this division's chance at a higher overall rating.
5. Central - It's tougher than previous years... or is it? Sure, the Blackhaws, Blue Jackets, and Blues hung around the playoff picture for longer this year, but they still won't make it, and the Preds are currently in 9th. A strong finish vs. divisional opponents by Nashville could put them into the top 8. Detroit didn't fare as well against their divisional opponents this year as in year's past, so people may feel their #1 finish is more justified than other years, but the division as a whole is still the weak sister of the West.
6. Southeast - It's not even close. Carolina has gone on a tear to finish the year, but they will almost certainly be the only team from the division to make the playoffs, and they may only finish as the 8th best team in the East. That's better than what it seemed like (that they'd finish worse than the #9 seed but make the playoffs), but it's still not good. Washington had a great second 2/3 of the season, but their poor start will almost certainly keep them out. Florida, Atlanta, and Tampa are all challenging for a lotto pick.
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Lillith
Forum Witch
Joined: 20 Oct 2007
Posts: 305
Location: Second Star to the Right
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| Posted: Tue Mar 11, 2008 2:25 pm Post subject: |
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Detroit Prayer:
Dear Lord, please don't let us fuck up in the playoffs....
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saskhab
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2447
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 10:10 am Post subject: |
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Two new eliminations last night! Atlanta and St. Louis... you're outta there!
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Av-merican
Un-Tenured Professor of Hockey
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 1429
Location: Denver
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 10:36 am Post subject: |
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| You mean to tell me Columbus is still in it!? |
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saskhab
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2447
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:01 am Post subject: |
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| Av-merican wrote: |
| You mean to tell me Columbus is still in it!? |
Is having to go 10-1-1 for the rest of the year "still in it"? You decide.
Cogliano is keeping Edmonton "alive" beyond all logic. And Toronto's big comeback assured US679's co-workers a couple more days of annyoing false hope.
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US679 Part Deux
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 407
Location: Milton, Ontario
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:17 am Post subject: |
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| saskhab wrote: |
| And Toronto's big comeback assured US679's co-workers a couple more days of annyoing false hope. |
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Hounsy
Reigning King of One-Liners
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 829
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:29 am Post subject: |
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| US679 Part Deux wrote: |
| saskhab wrote: |
| And Toronto's big comeback assured US679's co-workers a couple more days of annyoing false hope. |
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The longer it goes the harder they crash and the bigger you laugh.
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US679 Part Deux
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 407
Location: Milton, Ontario
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| Posted: Wed Mar 12, 2008 11:33 am Post subject: |
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| Hounsy wrote: |
| US679 Part Deux wrote: |
| saskhab wrote: |
| And Toronto's big comeback assured US679's co-workers a couple more days of annyoing false hope. |
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The longer it goes the harder they crash and the bigger you laugh. |
You're totally right and the crash will come in the next week or so but it's still totally annoying.
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saskhab
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2447
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 11:08 pm Post subject: |
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Well, Toronto has hit the end of the line... to reach 92 points, they must go 9-0-0. No blemishes.
Without Sundin, they got their asses kicked by the Sabres, who closed ever so slightly on Philly. They'll still need an impressive finish to surpass the Flyboys.
Philly is now at 80 points with 10 to play. It's very possible that a more realistic number would be 91 points at this point rather than 92.
Nashville won today, but are still in tough with Vancouver also winning. Phoenix is losing to Edmonton right now. Edmonton's down to their last regulation loss before elimination, and a regulation loss would put Phoenix on their last breath as well.
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saskhab
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2447
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Sun Mar 16, 2008 5:55 pm Post subject: |
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Columbus stays barely alive with a win over Detroit... but it's all over for Chicago after losing to Calgary in regulation. 
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saskhab
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2447
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Sun Mar 16, 2008 10:01 pm Post subject: |
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Edmonton and Florida keep their improbable playoff hopes alive, and San Jose misses a chance to be the second team to "clinch" a spot by losing in the shootout to Edmonton (who else).
Honestly, no one is noticing but Florida is on an unbelievable run right now. They've won 7 straight and are only 2 points behind Philly, though they've played one more game than the 3 teams battling for that spot (Philly, Buffalo, Washington).
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