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E.L.
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 1137
Location: Go Giants!
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 Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 3:28 pm Post subject: MLB 2008 season! (now with predictions!) |
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I had some time today to crunch the numbers and finally come up with some semi-thought out 2008 MLB baseball season projections. I'll start slowly, only to reduce typing strain and build excitement.
AL EAST
1. New York Yankees (95-67) I have them ranked ahead of the Red Sox because the Yanks were ridiculously bad in the first half last season and still managed to comfortably make the playoffs. The rotation promises to be stronger with Hughes, Kennedy and possibly Chamberlain if an injury strikes. Remember the Yanks were so hard up for pitching options last season they were using Tyler Clippard
2. Boston Red Sox (92-70) Four less wins than last year. The Red Sox have five good starters right now and Bartolo Colon attempting to regain form in AAA, but I could see the same problem befall the defending champs that the Yanks had last season. Wakefield, Lester and Buchholz are unlikely to hit 200 innings this season and Beckett's spring training physical woes are worrisome. Still a great team, but they'll settle for the wild card
3. Toronto Blue Jays (84-78 ) Even less pitching depth than the top-2, and there are way too many injury question marks here. I think Rios and Wells will have excellent seasons, but Rolen might be finished. J.P. Ricciardi may have also rushed back Ryan, and without Janssen for the season they may have turned their strength (bullpen) into a weakness
4. Tampa Bay Rays (80-82) People are expecting major strides from the new-look Rays, but even this under .500 prediction is a 14 game improvement. Stacked offensively, and a pitching staff big on potential, remember these are still kids and prone to bouts of inconsistency. This team won't contend until Price, McGee, Longoria and Upton are true all-stars. Boston and New York won't walk all over them this year.
5. Baltimore Orioles (59-103) Worst team in baseball in the toughest division in baseball. It's rare nowadays for a team to lose 100, but I believe in them
Division MVP: A-Rod
Division ROY: Evan Longoria (Hughes if he counted)
Comeback player: Vernon Wells
All-suck: Mike Mussina
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razzmatazz
Go Habs Go! Vive le CH!
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 1289
Location: Burnaby, B.C.
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| Posted: Mon Mar 24, 2008 3:38 pm Post subject: |
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Really went out on a limb with that division  |
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E.L.
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 1137
Location: Go Giants!
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 12:55 am Post subject: |
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NL East
1. Atlanta Braves (93-69) With Mark Teixeira batting cleanup for a full season, the Braves lineup will be as strong as it's been for a few years. The loss of Andruw Jones likely won't be felt at all. The rotation remains anchored by the ageless John Smoltz and the rejuvenated Tim Hudson. The bullpen also has more power arms than the overrated Mets
2. New York Mets (86-76) The rotation is very suspect after prized off-season addition Johan Santana. Pedro should rebound but Duque is finished, Maine and Oliver Perez have been prone to inconsistency despite last year's decent totals, and the thinner bullpen might crumble if they have to pitch 3-4 innings a night. There are holes in the order, including Carlos Beltran who is coming off major knee surgery. Delgado is pretty much done
3. Philadelphia Phillies (84-78 ) Great hitting, awful pitching. Hamels and Myers are studs, but the bullpen hasn't been improved and neither has the back end of the rotation. It took a miraculous comeback/tank job by NY to squeak into the playoffs - won't happen this year
4. Washington Nationals (75-87) Lots of young players with potential, so I'm assuming enough of them turn out to salvage an otherwise disappointing season
5. Florida Marlins (70-92) Loria can fuck himself. If Josh Johnson and Anibal Sanchez come back at some point this season, they might play spoiler in the second half
Division MVP: Johan Santana
Division Cy: Johan Santana
Division ROY: Yunel Escobar
Comeback Player: Brian McCann/Pedro Martinez
All-suck: Carlos Beltran
...and since I forgot, AL East Division Cy: Scott Kazmir (even though he's hurt)
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Av-merican
Un-Tenured Professor of Hockey
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 1458
Location: Denver
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 11:42 am Post subject: |
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Wow...I'm actually excited for baseball to start for the first time in 3-4 years...
Jayson Nix has been officially penned in as the Rox' starting 2nd baseman. I don't know much about him, a quick scouting report I read makes him out to be a .260-.270 hitter, has a little power but prone to strikeouts. He has good speed on the bases, his defensive game could use some work though. He'd better up his game in that department, the Rockies infield was the best in the majors last year. I'm sure he'll start somewhere around 7th in the lineup, allowing Tulowitski to bat full-time in the #2 spot.
I think we might miss Josh Fogg more than anyone predicts. I understand the decision not to retain him, but this is still a very young and raw lineup. On top of that there's just no telling how long Aaron Cook will last this season. Ubaldo Jimenez has great stuff but he has GOT to learn better control. Morales IMO at this point is still a candidate for the bullpen.
Admittedly I haven't been paying attention much to spring training, so I'm not certain how they've been looking as a whole. I'm predicting it'll be next year before we finally see what we've all been waiting for from Ian Stewart.
In any event I hope we get to see the Rox we saw near the end of last season and not the Rox at the beginning of last season and the World Series. GO ROCKIES!!!! |
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E.L.
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 1137
Location: Go Giants!
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| Posted: Tue Mar 25, 2008 12:05 pm Post subject: |
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AL Central
1. Cleveland Indians (93-79) Tigers this and Tigers that, truth is the Indians still have the best bullpen in baseball (except for their closer) and underrated hitters like Victor Martinez, Ryan Garko and Travis Hafner who should be entering their primes. Grady Sizemore is the teams' catalyst, and he'll push this team to the top of the division similar to how Craig Biggio jumpstarted the Astros offence in the 90's
2. Detroit Tigers (88-74) We all know these guys can hit, but the bullpen is already in shambles. Zumaya and Rodney are hurt, and Todd Jones has been getting by on fumes for the last three years. If Granderson is out for an extended period (he's already gone a month), the team will be without its only basestealing threat. Still, the Tigers should have a top-3 offensive and could score their way into the playoffs
3. Kansas City Royals (77-85) This would constitute an 8-game improvement on last season. More an indictment of the two teams below them, the Royals have the same aura that surrounded their last decent team (the one with Damon, Dye and Beltran that almost made the playoffs). Gordon, Butler, Gload, Guillen could be a very formidable middle of the order, and the team has an underrated bullpen
4. Chicago White Sox (76-86) The additions of Nick Swisher and OCab will surely help, although the pitching staff still has too many holes. John Danks was commendable but barely ready last season, and now he'll be counted on to be the 3rd starter. Contreras and Floyd form an awful back-end of the rotation, and there isn't much in AAA if any of these guys get hurt. Similar to the Tigers, they have the offensive firepower to muscle their way into playoff contention, but remember the White Sox lost 90 games last season and still traded one of their most reliable starters
5. Minnesota Twins (74-88 ) Still one of the weaker offensive teams in the AL, things could be even uglier with Carlos Gomez as a very green CF and leadoff hitter. They'll be near the bottom in production at the 3B, SS in production. The rotation might surprise people, especially a slimmer Bonser, and the Radke's esque Baker/Slowey soft-tossing duo. Everyone in the division seems at least moderately improved except for the Twinkies.
Division MVP: Grady Sizemore
Divison Cy: C.C. Sabathia
Division ROY: Alexi Ramirez
Comeback Player: Dontrelle Willis
All-suck: Gary Sheffield
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E.L.
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 1137
Location: Go Giants!
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| Posted: Wed Mar 26, 2008 12:20 pm Post subject: |
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NL Central
1. Chicago Cubs (90-72) Celebrating 100 years of futility, the North Side Cubs have enough power arms, and a balanced batting order to win the division. After that...
2. Milwaukee Brewers (88-74) Every year I pick the Brew Crew to win the division, and every year they come up just short. The turnover the team's pitching staff experiences is remarkable. Chris Capuano went from stud to dud in less than a season. Ditto Turnbow, and the half-way decent Vargas was released. Still, they have the best nucleus of young players in baseball, and the should feast on the weaker Central as much as the Cubs
3. Cincinnati Reds (82-80) Dusty Baker might damage the long-term success of this franchise, but it's likely he'll give the team an initial spike in his first year. Truth is Jerry Narron cost his team at least 5-6 games last year with terrible bench calling, questionable bullpen decisions and not adhering to the fundamentals. Baker squads have a good track record of playing loose, comfortable baseball, and I think the mix of young and old players will come together quickly
4. St. Louis Cardinals (74-88 ) This is truly Albert Pujols' team, but that's because there's no one left. The middle infield is AAA-calibre offensively, and the outfield is way below average. Unless Wainwright takes another big step forward, there isn't a 200-inning workhorse in the rotation
5. Pittsburgh Pirates (69-93) It will take a year before GM Neal Huntingdon can really start to turn this franchise around. Jason Bay has become a shadow of himself and only a year without sulking could really improve this team's chances. The pitching staff might be the most underrated in baseball, especially ace Ian Snell and closer Matt Capps
6. Houston Astros (68-94) Arguably the worst pitching staff in baseball. It's Oswalt and nobodies. The team's defence might also be ridiculously awful as well. They should hit, but Bourn and Matsui at the top could result in lower RBI totals for the sluggers
Division MVP: Prince Fielder (won't even be close)
Division Cy: Aaron Harang
Division ROY: Joey Votto
Comeback player: Derrick Turnbow
All-suck: Jose Valverde
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E.L.
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 1137
Location: Go Giants!
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| Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 1:08 am Post subject: |
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NL West
1. Los Angeles Dodgers (93-69) Best mix of pitching and hitting in a deep division without a dominating presence. Addition of Andruw Jones will hopefully push fantasy wunderkind/real-life bozo Juan Pierre to the pine. Embracing youngsters like Loney, Billingsley, Kershaw, LaRoche, Ethier and Kemp will only make them that more deadly
2. San Diego Padres (86-76) The offence is still a mix of old guys and castoffs, but in spacious Petco Park all they need is solid pitching and a few runs. Peavy and Young could finish 1-2 in Cy voting, while youngsters Greene, Gonzalez and Kouzmanoff made significant improvements to suggest offence will improve
3. Colorado Rockies (82-80) (wiseguy) The team had to go on an unbelievable stretch just to make the playoffs, so which Rockies team is for real: the mediocre squad from the first-half or the miracle Rockies of the final 25 games. Probably somewhere in between, although I'm not digging the bullpen as much. It might also be tough to equal their staggering defensive numbers from last year
4. Arizona Diamondbacks (81-81) Overrated team with a potentially ugly offence. Eric Byrnes is a gamer but hardly capable of repeating his MVP-type season. Dan Haren was a decent pickup but likely played over his head last season, while expecting Randy Johnson and Doug Davis to provide a solid back end of the rotation is asking a lot
5. San Francisco Giants (63-99) Fuck you
Division MVP: Russell Martin
Division Cy: Jake Peavy
Division ROY: Hideki Kuroda
Comeback Player: Randy Johnson
All-suck: Bengie fucking god damn Molina
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Last edited by E.L. on Fri Mar 28, 2008 1:26 am; edited 1 time in total |
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saskhab
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2515
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 1:15 am Post subject: |
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So which 60 games are the Rockies just not going to play? 
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razzmatazz
Go Habs Go! Vive le CH!
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 1289
Location: Burnaby, B.C.
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| Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 1:30 am Post subject: |
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| Didn't know being hurt was equated with sulking in Pittsburgh... |
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Bosc Ulrich II
OTP Resident Historian
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 2501
Location: Your own blue line!
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| Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 9:02 am Post subject: |
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I like that roundup, EL
How do you think the Padres Prior acquisition will pan out? No risk-insane reward potential there, unless he's done and I just don't know it.
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E.L.
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 1137
Location: Go Giants!
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| Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 10:46 am Post subject: |
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No doubt injuries played a role in Bay's disastrous season, but by the end of the season he was questioning management and some fans were irked by his nonchalant attitude about playing.
AL West
1. Seattle Mariners (93-69) This was the toughest division to pick, because all thing being considered the Angels are the better team, but with Escobar gone for the season and Lackey likely done too, the combo of King Felix and Bedard might be too much for any team to handle. Love the Seattle bullpen as well. This pick is contingent on Beltre having contract season and Lopez/Betancourt becoming one of the top hitting middle infields in baseball. I think the Mariners should sign Bonds - it would seal the deal
2. Los Angeles Angels (92-70) Still one of the league's best teams even with their two Cy Young hopefuls out. It's a testament to this team's depth that they can sustain such losses and still look great on paper. Vladdy may not run anymore but he still has the quickest hands at the plate. I love the mix of young and old players on this team (I think even Garrett Anderson has a decent season left in him)
3. Texas Rangers (76-86) Better than most people think, but they still lack the pitching to win a division. Hamilton, Kinsler, Blalock, Young forma solid young nucleus of hitters, while there's potential in the pitching to least take a step forward (it bites that McCarthy's season might be done)
4. Oakland Athletics (69-93) Last season I was watching the A's play the Mets in an interleague game, and 45-year old Orlando Hernandez struck out Eric Chavez with a change-up so slow, it didn't register on Shea Stadium's radar gun. Another rebuilding year
Division MVP: Josh Hamilton
Division Cy: Erik Bedard
Division ROY: Jack Hannahan (if he counts, don't think he does)
Comeback Player: Rich Harden/Bobby Crosby (whichever stays healthy)
All-suck: Eric Chavez
OK, now here are my grand final predictions:
Playoffs:
AL: Yankees, Indians, Mariners WC: Angels
NL: Braves, Cubs, Dodgers WC: Brewers
AL-NL MVP: Grady Sizemore, Russell Martin
AL-NL Cy: Erik Bedard, Johan Santana
AL-NL ROY: Alexi Ramirez, Hideki Kuroda
WS: Angels v. Dodgers
Winner: Los Angeles Dodgers
Man, it pains me as a San Francisco fan to say this, but the Bums in the Latrine have a great team this year. Top to bottom complete, with the ability to push expensive mistakes to the side (Pierre..cough cough). Conventional wisdom says the World champ is coming out of the AL, but every couple of years an NL team squeaks through, and I think an NL team will win it in 2008.
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Bosc Ulrich II
OTP Resident Historian
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 2501
Location: Your own blue line!
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| Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 11:05 am Post subject: |
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Why didn't the Reds keep Hamilton? 
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E.L.
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 1137
Location: Go Giants!
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| Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 11:28 am Post subject: |
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| Bosc Ulrich II wrote: |
| Why didn't the Reds keep Hamilton? |
Edinson Volquez is going to be electric this season. It was a good deal for both sides. Remember Hamilton is only three years removed from ODing on heroin, so there's risk he may never have the physical ability to stay healthy a full season (he had a quite a few minor injuries in 07).
I just think if he somehow manages to stay healthy, he has the sweetest homerun swing in baseball. He could easily hit 35 HR and hit .300 in Arlington.
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Bosc Ulrich II
OTP Resident Historian
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 2501
Location: Your own blue line!
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| Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 11:41 am Post subject: |
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| E.L.in.H.D. wrote: |
| Bosc Ulrich II wrote: |
| Why didn't the Reds keep Hamilton? |
Edinson Volquez is going to be electric this season. It was a good deal for both sides. Remember Hamilton is only three years removed from ODing on heroin, so there's risk he may never have the physical ability to stay healthy a full season (he had a quite a few minor injuries in 07).
I just think if he somehow manages to stay healthy, he has the sweetest homerun swing in baseball. He could easily hit 35 HR and hit .300 in Arlington. |
Was it a trade? I thought the Rangers just signed him as a free agent.
Yeah I remember watching him belt one out. The swing just looked so easy, fast as hell and compact. I couldn't believe that it left the park.
I don't know if you saw when I asked it above but what do you think about Prior in Diego?
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E.L.
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 1137
Location: Go Giants!
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| Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 11:55 am Post subject: |
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Yeah, Prior won't be back until late-May by the earliest (he was placed on the 60-day DL), but I'm doubting he gets a start in before the All-Star Break. I don't he'll be much of a factor.
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Av-merican
Un-Tenured Professor of Hockey
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 1458
Location: Denver
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| Posted: Sat Mar 29, 2008 4:13 pm Post subject: |
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Great predictions, E.L., though I will respectfully disagree with your NL West prediction. I'd switch the D-Backs and Dodgers...LA certainly has the deepest and most talented farm system in MLB but I don't think that talent is quite ready. They'll surprise but I don't think they're ready to take the division and make it into the postseason, much less the World Series...
The D-Backs got by with crappy offense last season and there's no reason to think that their hitting will get any worse. If Webb stays on track and they actually get some kind of meaningful contribution from Johnson, they should have little problem taking the NLW title.
Sadly, I think your Rox prognostication will be dead-on. |
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E.L.
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 1137
Location: Go Giants!
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| Posted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 4:23 pm Post subject: |
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Jayson Stark of ESPN picks the Braves to win the WS. It's a good pick, I think they're close.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/preview08/columns/story?columnist=stark_jayson&id=3320120
Tonight the Nats open their new ballpark in DC. Should have been our stadium.
Even better, the Giants/Dodgers game will be shown on RDS tomorrow afternoon at 4:05 pm!
D-Backs are horrendously overrated. They don't have a cleanup hitter, none of their young players are good power hitters, the bullpen lacks depth, they don't enough starters in AAA in case of injuries.
Joe Torre will be a factor, but the Dodgers were poised to compete for a playoff spot before the Rox went on that monster tear. The Dodgers tuned out Grady Little and injuries started to pile up. Kemp and Ethier are ready (BTW Pierre has officially lost his LF job). LaRoche is going to give this team a major kick when he comes back in June. Russell Martin is their headstrong leader. Their pitching staff is also deeper than any of their divisional opponents, especially if Schmidt and Loazia can come back.
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E.L.
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 1137
Location: Go Giants!
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| Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2008 6:44 pm Post subject: |
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Giants lose their opener v. the Dodgers. Zito was bad, the team was bad, it's going to be a longggggggg season.
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Av-merican
Un-Tenured Professor of Hockey
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 1458
Location: Denver
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| Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 3:00 pm Post subject: |
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Rox get a save from Mother Nature, down 6-1 in their opener against the Cards after a horrid outing from Jeff Francis, the game gets rained out before they can reach a decision, so they get the win the next day on the back of none other than Kip Wells, whom I've heard has been the losingest pitcher in baseball the last three years or something like that. He apparently wanted a bit of revenge and shut down St. Loo. Also, new 2nd baseman Jayson Nix gets his first MLB RBI.
1 down...161 to go! |
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hipcheck
Wears red stockings
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 365
Location: The Box
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| Posted: Thu Apr 03, 2008 8:54 pm Post subject: |
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| Quote: |
| 2. Boston Red Sox (92-70) Four less wins than last year. The Red Sox have five good starters right now and Bartolo Colon attempting to regain form in AAA, but I could see the same problem befall the defending champs that the Yanks had last season. Wakefield, Lester and Buchholz are unlikely to hit 200 innings this season and Beckett's spring training physical woes are worrisome. Still a great team, but they'll settle for the wild card |
No problem with that, however you gave the wildcard to the Angels
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