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harmfuljays
King of Men
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 917
Location: Djibouti
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 Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:05 am Post subject: Time for a Blockbuster |
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Yeah right I don't buy it but the horse is being beaten in the Herald, the Sun at HF and Calgarypuck.
IMO the best article by IMO the best Calgary writer, Bruce Dowbiggin from the Herald.
http://www.canada.com/calgaryherald/news/sports/flames/story.html?id=b3ac3e8d-d292-4267-a387-cfd7503ea24b&k=97671
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Dion Dilemma looms for Flames
Calgary can pay big bucks to keep Phaneuf or accept rich compensation
Bruce Dowbiggin
Calgary Herald
Saturday, January 19, 2008
OK, class. A train is leaving Calgary going north at 60 kilometres an hour. A second train is heading south at 75 kilometres an hour. At what point must the trains hold up to avoid a collision?
Or, put in hockey terms, at what point will the train known as 'Dion Phaneuf's rising financial cost' collide with the Calgary Flames' financial reality heading south in the opposite direction? It's the question of the moment for the team as it wallows in the middle of the Western Conference, neither safely in the playoffs or hopelessly out of the postseason.
As we discussed in CBA 101 last week, class, Phaneuf will be a restricted free agent this summer, which means other teams can make him an offer on July 1 if he has no new contract. The catch being that Calgary can match that offer sheet to keep the
22-year-old all star. If not, they can take compensation -- in this case likely to be four first-round draft picks.
Until GM Darryl Sutter and the Flames organization get a precise fix on Phaneuf's salary and length in a new contract, it's hard to move forward with picking up, say, Olli Jokinen ($5.25 million/year salary cap hit till 2010) or Patrick Marleau ($4.167/year till 2010) for a Stanley Cup surge. Or re-signing potential unrestricted free agents Kristian Huselius or Daymond Langkow. (For the record, Calgary has about $2.4M left under the 2007-08 cap.)
Or the immediate future of the young defencemen on Calgary's farm team. To say nothing of the tender feelings of franchise icon Jarome Iginla, whose $7 million/year should be the top salary cap figure on the club. In short, all roads lead to the Dion Dilemma, whose implications will be talked about a decade from now as fans assess Calgary's success or failure.
Put simply, at which point does paying the precocious defenceman a large fortune for the next five to 10 years outweigh the four first-round draft picks and $40-50-60 million, maybe $100 million worth of cap space over that same time frame? Because it seems certain some rogue club this summer will think that the offensively gifted Phaneuf is worthy of the 10-, 12-, 15-year deals handed out recently to Mike Richards, Rick DiPietro, Alex Ovechkin, etc. It's simply the way it is under the current CBA and with the shortage of young defencemen.
And if you were to trade Phaneuf before he hits the market, the list of suitors would be lengthy for the best defensive scoring prospect of his generation. Quick, make up your mind on a decision that will affect this franchise for a decade.
So what's the call on Phaneuf's upside: Do you see No. 3 growing into the next Denis Potvin or Chris Pronger or Nicklas Lidstrom, a perennial Norris Trophy guy? Or do you see the enormous money and early fame turning him into Ed Jovanovski or Derek Morris, a talented player who is somehow less than the sum of his parts?
Darryl Sutter and the Flames coaches love the kid, of course. But many are concerned whether he's motivated to round out his game enough to be a franchise linchpin worth a whack of the team's salary cap. Defensive coach Jim Playfair has cautioned about the "work-in-progress" that is Phaneuf in his own zone. Then there's the ultraconfident attitude that chafes many around the league and his own club. There are plenty of signs either way.
It says here that Darryl Sutter would rather give up a limb than see his protege Phaneuf in other colours. He'll point to Anaheim's Stanley Cup success with Pronger and its mighty defence corps. He'll say how rare a Phaneuf is. He'll say he's an Alberta kid. All true and valid. (In fact, I think Sutter's own mind is already made up.)
But for $6 million/season in cap space you can buy two pretty good defencemen (or forwards or goalies or coaches for that matter), and those four first rounders would buttress a farm system that is -- to dispute the GM's assertion in the Herald this week -- short on future impact players outside Mikael Backlund. Eight first rounders in four years could set up the Flames for a generation.
It's a tough call. Its ramifications are crucial for Sutter's legacy. But in a sense the GM and his family helped create the player; now he'll be responsible to judge if the final product is a good investment.
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I had no idea that Tanguay was the 7th leading scorer since the lockout. But again that seems to be a Francis fact and I have not verified it.
I am not adverse to letting Dion go if the price is right. Yep....he's probably my favorite player on the team right now but the Flames have already comitted to a core group (right or wrong). Dion's stock keeps going up but I would have a hard time paying him 5 million at this point in his career...its a very difficult decision.
It will definitely be sad to see Langkow and/or Huselius go. I would rather see Huselius play but I doubt his desire is there with Keenan in tow. Langkow's comments already seem like he is on the bus out of town (I don't care bud just keep scoring).
Meehan is Dion and Huselius' agent.
One thing is for sure....the Flames have to move Tanguay and get something comparable in return. Good luck Sutter!!!!!!!!!
_________________
"Don't think (Stay)
Drink your wine (Home)
Watch the fire burn (Be)
His problems not mine (Safe)
Just be that model citizen"
-The Decline
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the New Cunning Linguist
Failed Bandwagon Opportunist
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 1215
Location: I'm here, aren't I?
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| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:30 am Post subject: |
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Just read on Spector that Tanguay has an NTC; he'd have to waive it before his salary could be dumped, but I can see him doing it for the right team. Moving his salary makes the most sense, but I also see your point about allowing him to go all RFA - just look at the pressure and unfulfilled promise that Vanek, and to a lesser extent, Penner have been through. I see Phaneuf being in the $3.5-$4.0M level at most, for about three years... As long as he continues at his current trajectory, there's no reason he wouldn't deserve a salary bump and extension after that.
Comparisons to Lidstrom aren't fair... You're talking about a guy who is in his early 20s, whereas Lidstrom didn't start to get Norris consideration until his late 20s... I think he's won what - 5 of the last 7 Norris trophies or something? With no signs of slowing down whatsoever.
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... Because the old one, is well, old.
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harmfuljays
King of Men
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 917
Location: Djibouti
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| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:45 am Post subject: |
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Right....but we are talking Meehan here. I think the Flames have already offered Dion a salary in the 3-4 mil range and he rejected it. I think he's looking at 5 mil and knows that without a doubt some other team will throw it at him after July 1st. While the Flames would have loved to give him what you are suggesting Dion is in control.
All this speculation regarding Tanguay to Montreal bothers me. It doesn't seem Tanguay would enjoy the scrutiny being a Frenchman playing in Montreal (he is on record as saying so). Why the hell he was given a NTC and a ridiculous contract is beyond me. Nothing from Montreal interests me (other than Higgins).
Pack he and Phaneuf together and ship them to Tampa for Lecavalier and O'Brien and forget about Huselius, Langkow, Nolan and the rest of the bunch...........Can you tell I've been at HF? 
I also don't like the Lombardi trade talk. I think he's more than capable to move up to 2nd and/or 1st line duty next year.
Just looking at this makes me cringe
http://www.nhlnumbers.com/overview.php?team=CGY
_________________
"Don't think (Stay)
Drink your wine (Home)
Watch the fire burn (Be)
His problems not mine (Safe)
Just be that model citizen"
-The Decline
-UP THE IRONS! |
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Bosc Ulrich II
OTP Resident Historian
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 2441
Location: Your own blue line!
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| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 10:51 am Post subject: |
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Good article, Harms
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saskhab
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2445
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 11:35 am Post subject: |
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The problem with this whole 4 1st rounders theory is that you won't see the fruits of any of those picks until that 4th or 5th year after this exchange is made.
If you believe Phaneuf is going to turn into a Chris Pronger or Scott Stevens or Larry Robinson or what have you, then what better way are you ever going to find for all that cap space? 2 decent defenceman have never been as good as one of those level of d-men.
If Tanguay is not traded, then you can probably say goodbye to both Langkow and Huselius, so trading Tanguay for futures makes the most sense if there is a deal to be had.
Montreal and Calgary are obviously scouting each other, but is it for Tanguay? I'm not 100% that it is, but we'll see.
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Bosc Ulrich II
OTP Resident Historian
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 2441
Location: Your own blue line!
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| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 11:38 am Post subject: |
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| saskhab wrote: |
The problem with this whole 4 1st rounders theory is that you won't see the fruits of any of those picks until that 4th or 5th year after this exchange is made.
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And that's if they make it...
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saskhab
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2445
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 11:49 am Post subject: |
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| Bosc Ulrich II wrote: |
| saskhab wrote: |
The problem with this whole 4 1st rounders theory is that you won't see the fruits of any of those picks until that 4th or 5th year after this exchange is made.
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And that's if they make it... |
In general, one of the picks will be ready by then. Obviously you're dealing with unknowns in this scenario, whereas with Phaneuf you have a better feel of his upside.
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Bosc Ulrich II
OTP Resident Historian
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 2441
Location: Your own blue line!
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| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 11:53 am Post subject: |
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| saskhab wrote: |
| Bosc Ulrich II wrote: |
| saskhab wrote: |
The problem with this whole 4 1st rounders theory is that you won't see the fruits of any of those picks until that 4th or 5th year after this exchange is made.
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And that's if they make it... |
In general, one of the picks will be ready by then. Obviously you're dealing with unknowns in this scenario, whereas with Phaneuf you have a better feel of his upside. |
Yeah, with 4 picks, even later in the round, odds are you'll get at least one pretty good player. So, do you take your chances and think that there will be a better way to use the cap space, or you'll get another franchise defenseman with wherever the picks end up?
My Dad has always said that when you have one, you just don't trade a #1 defenseman...
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harmfuljays
King of Men
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 917
Location: Djibouti
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| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 12:08 pm Post subject: |
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Well you get to that point where the money makes the decision for you. Obviously if the Flames hadn't spent all that money on Regehr, Iginla and Kipper we wouldn't be having this discussion. I don't like it anymore than the next person but the Flames can't afford a 6 million dollar Phaneuf.....and if they do they are seriously hampered for years to come subject to whatever cap increase they get.
Dion and Meehan are already creating problems demanding more money than Regehr.
Here's the breakdown of expiring contracts into UFAness.....
Conroy 2.85...............see ya
Langkow 2.442.........unaffordable
Nolan......1.75...........large reduction
Huselius....1.4...........This one is worth a shot...probably at the 2.8-3 range.
Yelle.......1.25...........I would offer him less to bring him back. He's still a bargain at this price. Daniel Ryder can take this role......Even Prust could probably move to center.
Hale........590,000
Smith........488,000
Goddard.....475,000.......their numbers don't mean much.
So we can all do the math here but I am going to cheat and go directly to NHLNUMBERS.com.
Cap hit for this year is 48.2. Moving Tanguay frees approx 5.4. The total cap hit for next year minus above players (and Tanguay) plus a 6 million dolar Phaneuf is 39 Million....providing the cap is raised to 50-52 million that allows a potential shot at Langkow and/or Huselius but probably not both since the rest of the money will be needed to replace the departing 9 forwards.
I don't understand the interest in the Habs.....Maybe Ryder because his younger brother is in the system here?
Probably be some stupid shit like Tanguay for Smolinski and Brisebrois.............  Might agree to it if you will take Erickson and his 1.5
I think Flames fans are just going to have to deal with the reality that Tanguay is not going to bring his equal in return. Bottom line is Sutter made a mistake and overpaid him.
_________________
"Don't think (Stay)
Drink your wine (Home)
Watch the fire burn (Be)
His problems not mine (Safe)
Just be that model citizen"
-The Decline
-UP THE IRONS! |
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Bosc Ulrich II
OTP Resident Historian
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 2441
Location: Your own blue line!
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| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 12:21 pm Post subject: |
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Mike friggin Ribeiro just got 5 million a year from the Stars. That's probably the price range that Huselius could be asking for, unless Sutter can somehow get him to sign a below-market deal with Keenan of all coaches at the helm. I have a hard time believing that Huselius won't explore the open market of 29 other teams with coaches not named Keenan after breaking out the past couple of seasons at a bargain price.
Harmy, have you heard much about Keenan's relationship with Tanguay and Huselius this year?
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harmfuljays
King of Men
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 917
Location: Djibouti
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| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 12:34 pm Post subject: |
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5 Mil for Ribiero? Wow.....that's going to be hard void to fill 9 vacancies with less than 13 million in space. I wouldn't imagine Huselius would be willing to return with Keenan at the helm. I think his play is excellent (as I do of Tanguay's) this year. Even though it would seem highly unlikely that he would want to stay, Meehan is his agent as well as Phaneufs. He may be persuaded out of a sense of loyalty from Sutter (you know the I took a chance on you from waivers thing) and perhaps tempted to play with his fellow countryman Backlund (if he is fasttracked for next year). I think if anyone....it should be Huselius.
However that being said we are losing a large proportion of capable Centre-men. Losing 2 proven center man who have jived with Iginla won't go over well with the Captain. So Langkow could be the best target. I find Langkow to command a much larger paycheque....(Ribiero money) than Huselius.
There hasn't been much talk on Keenan's relationship with the players (at least publicly)...I am sure all that will change as folks start to leave. I can't imagine he has changed much so I am certain we will hear the same old criticism.
_________________
"Don't think (Stay)
Drink your wine (Home)
Watch the fire burn (Be)
His problems not mine (Safe)
Just be that model citizen"
-The Decline
-UP THE IRONS! |
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saskhab
Morally Bankrupt Scum
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2445
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 12:52 pm Post subject: |
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Aucoin obviously has to be considered another target for a salary dump from Sutter's POV.
With the way Keenan distributes ice time, you've got to be ready for a very top-heavy salary structure. They can't have 4 d-men making anywhere from $3.5m to $6m and still have $2.35m for Warrener and $1.5m for Eriksson. One, preferably two d-men must be jettisoned.
Of course, the last thing Montreal needs is another average, well paid d-man, so Sutter has to find several trade partners to get this done.
It'd be interesting to see if Sutter will get approval for a player budget close to $60m for next year, because he might need it.
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Bosc Ulrich II
OTP Resident Historian
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 2441
Location: Your own blue line!
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| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 1:06 pm Post subject: |
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| saskhab wrote: |
Aucoin obviously has to be considered another target for a salary dump from Sutter's POV.
With the way Keenan distributes ice time, you've got to be ready for a very top-heavy salary structure. They can't have 4 d-men making anywhere from $3.5m to $6m and still have $2.35m for Warrener and $1.5m for Eriksson. One, preferably two d-men must be jettisoned.
Of course, the last thing Montreal needs is another average, well paid d-man, so Sutter has to find several trade partners to get this done.
It'd be interesting to see if Sutter will get approval for a player budget close to $60m for next year, because he might need it. |
That Eriksson contract was ridiculous. I have no dea what Sutter was thinking.
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harmfuljays
King of Men
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 917
Location: Djibouti
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| Posted: Mon Jan 21, 2008 2:45 pm Post subject: |
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On that note.....it certainly doesn't hurt that Calgary is experiencing a boom unlike anything they have seen in recent memory. Luckily the Ownership group is well entrenched in Oil and Gas and the money is flowing freely into the Flames organization. To think this franchise was on the cusp of failure less than a decade ago.
http://flames.nhl.com/team/app/?service=page&page=NHLPage&bcid=tea_owners
_________________
"Don't think (Stay)
Drink your wine (Home)
Watch the fire burn (Be)
His problems not mine (Safe)
Just be that model citizen"
-The Decline
-UP THE IRONS! |
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