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Bosc Ulrich II
OTP Resident Historian
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 2907
Location: Your own blue line!
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 Posted: Wed Mar 26, 2008 9:26 am Post subject: |
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Detroit over St Loo wasn't a key result? 
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Bring back the old OTP!
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saskhab
'03-'04 Goalie Profiles Coming Soon!
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2953
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Wed Mar 26, 2008 10:58 pm Post subject: |
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Wednesday's key results:
Columbus 4 Chicago 0
Minnesota 3 Edmonton 1
Colorado 6 Vancouver 3
Bye bye Chicago & Edmonton. The West only has 9 teams capable of reaching 92 points, and now Vancouver must have a winning record to reach that point after losing their 3rd straight in regulation. Nashville is licking their lips. The Avs move closer, needing 4 points in their final 4 games for the clinch. Minnesota moves ahead of Dallas and Calgary and is one point away from the clinch.
Could the Western bar drop? Technically yes, but 92 is a definite clinch and I'm sticking with the number.
No Eastern games on the night.
Here's the West (record to reach 92 points):
1. Detroit - clinched
2. San Jose - clinched
3. Anaheim - clinched
4. Minnesota - 0-3-1
5. Calgary - 1-4-0
6. Dallas - 1-4-1
7. Colorado - 2-2-0
8. Vancouver - 3-2-0
9. Nashville - 4-1-0
10. Edmonton - eliminated
11. Chicago - eliminated
12. Columbus - eliminated
13. Phoenix - eliminated
14. St. Louis - eliminated
15. Los Angeles - eliminated
And the East (92 points):
1. Montreal - clinched
2. Pittsburgh - clinched
3. New Jersey - 0-5-1
4. Ottawa - 0-4-1
5. NY Rangers - 1-4-1
6. Carolina - 2-3-0
7. Philadelphia - 2-3-0
8. Boston - 3-3-0
9. Washington - 4-1-0
10. Buffalo - 5-0-1
11. Florida - eliminated
12. Toronto - eliminated
13. NY Islanders - eliminated
14. Atlanta - eliminated
15. Tampa Bay - eliminated
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hipcheck
Wears red stockings
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 450
Location: The Box
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| Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 4:17 pm Post subject: |
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If the season ended today, Boston would open the playoffs at Montreal
Looks like I'll be ya'lls avatar bitch this year
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I'm a Bruins fan - don't try to confuse me with the facts |
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Farang
Chaser, Wearer of Skirts
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 392
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| Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 5:06 pm Post subject: |
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| I have a very bad feeling about Vancouver's chances of making the post season. I believe that Nashville has a way easier schedule. |
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saskhab
'03-'04 Goalie Profiles Coming Soon!
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2953
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Thu Mar 27, 2008 10:07 pm Post subject: |
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Thursday's key results:
Boston 4 Toronto 2
NY Rangers 3 New Jersey 2
Washington 4 Tampa Bay 3 (OT)
Buffalo 4 Ottawa 3 (SO)
San Jose 3 Dallas 2 (OT)
Ottawa becomes the 3rd EC team to virtually clinch a spot, doing it the awkward way by losing in a shootout to Buffalo, who got a late tying goal in the 3rd that kept their playoff hopes alive. A regulation loss would've eliminated them in this method. New Jersey fails YET AGAIN to reach 92 points, and now are tied with the Rangers, believe it or not. Boston moves closer, and now into "losing record" territory, where only 4 points in 10 games should be good enough for a spot. Washington pulled out a huge win in OT as well, keeping pace with Boston. All of a sudden, a 3-1-0 record is needed for them to make it... which isn't as daunting of a task as it might've seemed a week ago.
In the only West game that matters, Dallas salvages a point in an OT loss to San Jose, moving within 2 points of clinching.
Here's the West (record to reach 92 points):
1. Detroit - clinched
2. San Jose - clinched
3. Anaheim - clinched
4. Minnesota - 0-3-1
5. Dallas - 1-4-0
6. Calgary - 1-4-0
7. Colorado - 2-2-0
8. Vancouver - 3-2-0
9. Nashville - 4-1-0
10. Edmonton - eliminated
11. Chicago - eliminated
12. Columbus - eliminated
13. Phoenix - eliminated
14. St. Louis - eliminated
15. Los Angeles - eliminated
And the East (92 points):
1. Montreal - clinched
2. Pittsburgh - clinched
3. Ottawa - clinched
4. New Jersey - 0-4-1
5. NY Rangers - 0-4-1
6. Carolina - 2-3-0
7. Philadelphia - 2-3-0
8. Boston - 2-3-0
9. Washington - 3-1-0
10. Buffalo - 4-0-1
11. Florida - eliminated
12. Toronto - eliminated
13. NY Islanders - eliminated
14. Atlanta - eliminated
15. Tampa Bay - eliminated
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Farang
Chaser, Wearer of Skirts
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 392
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| Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 8:50 pm Post subject: |
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Oh man, 4-0 Minny and Nashville's winning their game  .
Playoffs don't look likely for this team. |
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saskhab
'03-'04 Goalie Profiles Coming Soon!
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2953
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 9:40 pm Post subject: |
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| Farang wrote: |
Oh man, 4-0 Minny and Nashville's winning their game .
Playoffs don't look likely for this team. |
I figured Nashville might get in if one NW team just sucked down the stretch in all the divisional games... well, right now, that's definitely Vancouver.
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saskhab
'03-'04 Goalie Profiles Coming Soon!
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2953
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Fri Mar 28, 2008 11:11 pm Post subject: |
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Friday's key results:
New Jersey 5 Philadelphia 4 (OT)
Carolina 7 Atlanta 1
Nashville 2 Columbus 0
Montreal 4 Buffalo 3 (OT)
Minnesota 4 Vancouver 0
Colorado 5 Edmonton 4 (SO)
Wow, big night. New Jersey and Minnesota are IN, each being the 4th team to clinch in their conference. Philly and Buffalo get OTL points, which is alright for Philly but puts Buffalo on the brink... they must run the table. The good news on that is that a 4 game winning streak isn't insurmountable, and two of those games are against 8th place Boston. Nashville wins, and Vancouver loses... which puts Nashville ahead of Vancouver due to having more wins. Colorado does the unthinkable, beating Edmonton in a shootout, and are within a win of the clinch with only 3 to play. Carolina is within a win away from a clinch as well with their, er, thrashing of Atlanta.
In case any of you are wondering, I'm not switching the rankings after a team has clinched or been eliminated. It's a running order of teams that have made it.
And yes, I still think 92 is the right number for both Conferences. I'll stick with it to the end, even if we have less than 8 teams that can reach it. At that point, it's a crap shoot. In fact, I might even be wrong about 92 for the East... it could be higher. For the Capitals, 92 might not be enough, they probably still need some help.
But it's quite simple from here on in... if you're hot and still in it, you should make it. If you're not, well...
Here's the West (record to reach 92 points):
1. Detroit - clinched
2. San Jose - clinched
3. Anaheim - clinched
4. Minnesota - clinched
5. Dallas - 1-4-0
6. Calgary - 1-4-0
7. Colorado - 1-2-0
8. Nashville - 3-1-0
9. Vancouver - 3-1-0
10. Edmonton - eliminated
11. Chicago - eliminated
12. Columbus - eliminated
13. Phoenix - eliminated
14. St. Louis - eliminated
15. Los Angeles - eliminated
And the East (92 points):
1. Montreal - clinched
2. Pittsburgh - clinched
3. Ottawa - clinched
4. New Jersey - clinched
5. NY Rangers - 0-4-1
6. Carolina - 1-3-0
7. Philadelphia - 1-2-1
8. Boston - 2-3-0
9. Washington - 3-1-0
10. Buffalo - 4-0-0
11. Florida - eliminated
12. Toronto - eliminated
13. NY Islanders - eliminated
14. Atlanta - eliminated
15. Tampa Bay - eliminated
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saskhab
'03-'04 Goalie Profiles Coming Soon!
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2953
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 2:50 am Post subject: |
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Saturday's key results:
Boston 4 Ottawa 0
Dallas 7 Los Angeles 2
Philadelphia 4 NY Islanders 3 (SO)
Washington 3 Florida 0
Tampa Bay 2 Carolina 1
Edmonton 2 Calgary 1
Dallas becomes Team #5 in the West that clinches, finally getting over the hump with a beatdown against last place LA. But the real story was in the East... Boston, Philly and Washington all won, and Carolina lost... making a very interesting final week in the Southeast. Carolina is now the single most vulnerable team and a tie with Washington with 92 points is very possible after 82 games... though Carolina currently would look to hold the tiebreaker in that scenario. 9 teams at 92 makes this ranking a little muddy... Washington could hope for Philly or Boston to falter in the final week to claim a spot as well. Carolina @ Washington on Tuesday is the key game of the week, IMO.
Calgary fails to inch closer in the West, and Edmonton hopes that neither Nashville nor Vancouver can get more than 90 points... Edmonton would hold the wins tiebreaker on both teams if they tied for 8th at 90.
Here's the West (record to reach 92 points):
1. Detroit - clinched
2. San Jose - clinched
3. Anaheim - clinched
4. Minnesota - clinched
5. Dallas - clinched
6. Calgary - 1-3-0
7. Colorado - 1-2-0
8. Nashville - 3-1-0
9. Vancouver - 3-1-0
10. Edmonton - eliminated
11. Chicago - eliminated
12. Columbus - eliminated
13. Phoenix - eliminated
14. St. Louis - eliminated
15. Los Angeles - eliminated
And the East (92 points):
1. Montreal - clinched
2. Pittsburgh - clinched
3. Ottawa - clinched
4. New Jersey - clinched
5. NY Rangers - 0-4-1
6. Philadelphia - 0-2-1
7. Boston - 1-3-0
8. Carolina - 1-2-0
9. Washington - 2-1-0
10. Buffalo - 4-0-0
11. Florida - eliminated
12. Toronto - eliminated
13. NY Islanders - eliminated
14. Atlanta - eliminated
15. Tampa Bay - eliminated
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Tuzer
No longer Croozing
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 789
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saskhab
'03-'04 Goalie Profiles Coming Soon!
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2953
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 12:21 pm Post subject: |
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Sunday's key games (preview edition):
NY Rangers @ Pittsburgh - A win would give the Rangers 93 points, which most definitely should be enough... 92 is the bar we're still using, which would require an OTL. Pittsburgh's battling for their division and conference lead.
Nashville @ Detroit - The huge race at the bottom of the West is hinging on Nashville's performance at the moment. This is their hardest test to close out their season... after this game it's 3 already eliminated teams they must face. A win for Detroit clinches the President's Trophy.
Colorado @ Minnesota - Colorado's not clear yet, though it looks like it'd be hard for them to miss. A win here puts them in, but Minnesota is battling for the #3 seed so this is a huge game for them as well.
Boston @ Buffalo - With a win, Boston would move into the "clinched" category, and Buffalo must win to avoid being put in the "eliminated" category. Buffalo is in such a longshot state that in reality even an OT win for them would likely be another nail in the coffin. They cannot afford to have 93 points be the bar in the East, and have to hope one of the 90 or 91 point teams (Boston or Philly in this case) lose all their games this final week. And even then, they have to hope Washington or Carolina isn't the 8th seed blocking the way. This is WAY longer odds than the Islanders faced a year ago when they suddenly got the final playoff spot in the final regular season game.
Calgary @ Vancouver - Vancouver's on the bubble, and definitely watching the results for both Colorado and Nashville tonight before they take on Calgary. They finish the year with a huge homestand and must make that a productive one to leapfrog Nashville, who aside from today's game, face easier competition. Calgary, with a win, would move into the "clinched" category. They're also still very much alive for the division title, so there is some definite motivation for them.
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saskhab
'03-'04 Goalie Profiles Coming Soon!
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2953
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 12:28 pm Post subject: |
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Columbus is out. They are forgetting that Edmonton and Vancouver play each other, and that one of those teams must get 2 points in that game, which would eliminate them. There is no possible way the Blue Jackets can make it. The highest they can finish is 9th, which would be incredibly remarkable.
So, because of that game, the Western playoff low bar right now is 88 points, not 86.
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razzmatazz
Go Habs Go! Vive le CH!
Joined: 18 Oct 2007
Posts: 1487
Location: Burnaby, B.C.
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| Posted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 1:12 pm Post subject: |
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All of a sudden the West is the easier conference to make the playoffs...
Calgary will be ornery having been oiled lubed and filtered last night...
Sure hope we can knock out Buffalo... Buffalo and Toronto in the same year... what sweet karma that would be... |
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saskhab
'03-'04 Goalie Profiles Coming Soon!
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2953
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 1:16 pm Post subject: |
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| razzmatazz wrote: |
All of a sudden the West is the easier conference to make the playoffs...
Calgary will be ornery having been oiled lubed and filtered last night...
Sure hope we can knock out Buffalo... Buffalo and Toronto in the same year... what sweet karma that would be... |
Yeah, I might have to adjust the East total to 93 points... but I won't do that today and might just have to do it mid-week. If you look at this website, the probability rate at 92 for a team like Boston is still pretty iffy:
http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NHL/Eastern/Northeast/Bruins.html
63% if they go 1-3-0, but only 50% if they go 0-2-2 to reach 92.
I'll wait until after the Carolina/Washington game to make an adjustment, if necessary.
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saskhab
'03-'04 Goalie Profiles Coming Soon!
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2953
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Sun Mar 30, 2008 11:59 pm Post subject: |
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Sunday's key results:
Pittsburgh 3 NY Rangers 1
Detroit 1 Nashville 0 (OT)
Minnesota 3 Colorado 2 (OT)
Buffalo 2 Boston 1 (OT)
Vancouver 6 Calgary 2
No new clinches today, and Buffalo doesn't quite get eliminated. Vancouver reclaims the 8th seed with a win and Nashville only got a point against Detroit. Calgary remains 2 points out, while Colorado and Boston move to just 1 point of the virtual clinch. The Rangers loss keeps them a point away as well.
In the world of actual, 100% mathematical clinches and eliminations, Phoenix is officially out, and Minnesota can start selling playoff tickets.
Here's the West (record to reach 92 points):
1. Detroit - clinched
2. San Jose - clinched
3. Anaheim - clinched
4. Minnesota - clinched
5. Dallas - clinched
6. Colorado - 0-1-1
7. Calgary - 1-2-0
8. Vancouver - 2-1-0
9. Nashville - 2-0-1
10. Edmonton - eliminated
11. Chicago - eliminated
12. Columbus - eliminated
13. Phoenix - eliminated
14. St. Louis - eliminated
15. Los Angeles - eliminated
And the East (92 points):
1. Montreal - clinched
2. Pittsburgh - clinched
3. Ottawa - clinched
4. New Jersey - clinched
5. NY Rangers - 0-3-1
6. Philadelphia - 0-2-1
7. Boston - 0-2-1
8. Carolina - 1-2-0
9. Washington - 2-1-0
10. Buffalo - 3-0-0
11. Florida - eliminated
12. Toronto - eliminated
13. NY Islanders - eliminated
14. Atlanta - eliminated
15. Tampa Bay - eliminated[/quote]
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saskhab
'03-'04 Goalie Profiles Coming Soon!
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2953
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2008 9:15 pm Post subject: |
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Monday's key results:
NY Rangers 2 Pittsburgh 1 (OT)
The Rangers virtually clinch, the 5th team to do so in the East. That is all.
I'm also adding a feature to show teams that are either completely mathematically eliminated and which have clinched... it's called bold font. Amazing.
Here's the West (record to reach 92 points):
1. Detroit - clinched
2. San Jose - clinched
3. Anaheim - clinched
4. Minnesota - clinched
5. Dallas - clinched
6. Colorado - 0-1-1
7. Calgary - 1-2-0
8. Vancouver - 2-1-0
9. Nashville - 2-0-1
10. Edmonton - eliminated
11. Chicago - eliminated
12. Columbus - eliminated
13. Phoenix - eliminated
14. St. Louis - eliminated
15. Los Angeles - eliminated
And the East (92 points):
1. Montreal - clinched
2. Pittsburgh - clinched
3. Ottawa - clinched
4. New Jersey - clinched
5. NY Rangers - clinched
6. Philadelphia - 0-2-1
7. Boston - 0-2-1
8. Carolina - 1-2-0
9. Washington - 2-1-0
10. Buffalo - 3-0-0
11. Florida - eliminated
12. Toronto - eliminated
13. NY Islanders - eliminated
14. Atlanta - eliminated
15. Tampa Bay - eliminated
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Grgecko
Drunken Lout
Joined: 19 Oct 2007
Posts: 107
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| Posted: Mon Mar 31, 2008 11:49 pm Post subject: |
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Sask, thanks for taking the time to update this dude. I would never find the gumpson to research this stuff myself, but it is very interesting and I check it daily.
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(Working in a Call Centre) + (Being a Leafs Fan) = (One HUGE glutton for punishment)
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saskhab
'03-'04 Goalie Profiles Coming Soon!
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2953
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 1:10 am Post subject: |
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Tuesday's key results:
Washington 4 Carolina 1
Nashville 4 St. Louis 3 (OT)
Buffalo 4 Toronto 3 (OT)
Calgary 3 Edmonton 2
Colorado 4 Vancouver 2
Somewhat meaningful results:
New Jersey 2 NY Islanders 1 (OT)
Montreal 3 Ottawa 0
Huge wins for Washington and Nashville, and while I'm still setting 92 as a basic target in the East, I'm including results of all teams that have not officially clinched. Washington moves into a tie with Carolina, although Carolina has the first tiebreaker. Ottawa's loss means they still can be caught, and are suddenly vulnerable with only 2 games left. Nasvhille jumps past Vancouver, and Colorado and Calgary virtually clinch spots as well... so we are down to a two team race for the final Western spot. Edmonton is officially out, although curiously... Chicago isn't quite dead yet... and if 8th place is only 90 points, and Chicago does reach that plateau... believe it or not, they'll have the wins tiebreaker.
Have crazier scenarios happened than that? Last year with the Islanders sneaking in was pretty crazy, but a Chicago sneak in would be ridiculously crazy. Chicago need to go 3-0-0 to have a shot, hope Nashville doesn't get more than 1 point (either an OT loss to Chicago or to St. Louis), and that Vancouver loses one of their games in regulation. Go Hawks!
Meanwhile, Buffalo survives another night, but need a hell of a lot more miracles to make it. New Jersey officially clinches a spot.
Here's the West (record to reach 92 points):
1. Detroit - clinched
2. San Jose - clinched
3. Anaheim - clinched
4. Minnesota - clinched
5. Dallas - clinched
6. Colorado - clinched
7. Calgary - clinched
8. Nashville - 1-0-1
9. Vancouver - 2-0-0
10. Edmonton - eliminated
11. Chicago - eliminated
12. Columbus - eliminated
13. Phoenix - eliminated
14. St. Louis - eliminated
15. Los Angeles - eliminated
And the East (92 points):
1. Montreal - clinched
2. Pittsburgh - clinched
3. Ottawa - clinched
4. New Jersey - clinched
5. NY Rangers - clinched
6. Philadelphia - 0-2-1
7. Boston - 0-2-1
8. Carolina - 1-1-0
9. Washington - 1-1-0
10. Buffalo - 2-0-0
11. Florida - eliminated
12. Toronto - eliminated
13. NY Islanders - eliminated
14. Atlanta - eliminated
15. Tampa Bay - eliminated
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saskhab
'03-'04 Goalie Profiles Coming Soon!
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2953
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 1:39 am Post subject: |
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Just to emphasize how vulnerable Ottawa is right now...
Take this scenario:
Washington and Carolina win both their remaining games. Each team plays at home, against Florida and Tampa Bay. That's not an overly difficult schedule, and such results would put both teams at 94 points. Carolina would finish with 44 wins, Washington with 43. Carolina clinches a playoff spot as the SE Division champion. Washington still needs some help.
That means one of Boston, Philadelphia, Ottawa or the NY Rangers would have to drop out of a spot. Boston, Philly, and the Rangers have 3 games left. Ottawa has 2.
One of those games is on Friday... Boston @ Ottawa. If Boston were to win this game in regulation, Ottawa can only attain 94 points (which a win vs. Toronto would do). If Ottawa only gets 94 points, the most wins they would have is 43. That's the same as Washington.
Washington made some noise earlier this year by sweeping their season series with Ottawa, who were at the top of the Eastern Conference for the majority of the season. After wins, season series is the next tiebreaker.
Ottawa would then be at the mercy of Philly and Boston, hoping one of them did not surpass their total of 94 points (or less) in order to make it. Fortunately for them, they should finish with more wins than both Boston and Philly, unless both teams run the table (which would knock Ottawa out anyways).
It may be unbelievable to consider, but Ottawa missing the playoffs isn't hard to fathom at all. The probability might not be incredibly high, and they still control their own destiny (winning both games guarantees a spot). But... it really doesn't seem so unlikely anymore.
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saskhab
'03-'04 Goalie Profiles Coming Soon!
Joined: 17 Oct 2007
Posts: 2953
Location: Saskatoon!
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| Posted: Wed Apr 02, 2008 11:04 pm Post subject: |
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Wednesday's key results:
New Jersey 3 Boston 2 (SO)
Carolina 6 Tampa Bay 2
Pittsburgh 4 Philadelphia 2
Somewhat meaningful results:
Chicago 6 Detroit 2
Boston and Carolina reach the now meaningless milestone of 92 points. This is pretty ridiculous right now. We'll just see how it compares in the end.
Anyways, 95 is a guarantee in the East, 93 in the West as of today.
Philly loses, and are now alone in 8th with 91 points and only two games to play. And Chicago keeps their longshot hopes alive with a big win over Detroit, who fail to clinch the President's Trophy. Awesome.
For all teams that the making the playoffs is still not completely decided, I've added, in brackets, their point total followed by the games remaining.
Here's the West (record to reach 92 points):
1. Detroit - clinched
2. San Jose - clinched
3. Anaheim - clinched
4. Minnesota - clinched
5. Dallas - clinched
6. Colorado - clinched
7. Calgary - clinched (92, 2)
8. Nashville - 1-0-1 (89, 2)
9. Vancouver - 2-0-0 (88, 2)
10. Edmonton - eliminated
11. Chicago - eliminated (86, 2)
12. Columbus - eliminated
13. Phoenix - eliminated
14. St. Louis - eliminated
15. Los Angeles - eliminated
And the East (92 points):
1. Montreal - clinched
2. Pittsburgh - clinched
3. Ottawa - clinched (92, 2)
4. New Jersey - clinched
5. NY Rangers - clinched (93, 3)
6. Boston - clinched (92, 2)
7. Carolina - clinched (92, 1)
8. Philadelphia - 0-2-1 (91, 2)
9. Washington - 1-1-0 (90, 2)
10. Buffalo - 2-0-0 (88, 2)
11. Florida - eliminated
12. Toronto - eliminated
13. NY Islanders - eliminated
14. Atlanta - eliminated
15. Tampa Bay - eliminated
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